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Tuesday, November 30, 2004
£1,000 Money Back Guarantee
Rob Mellor has just announced a new systems collection that promises that is guaranteed to make you £1,000 in your first 30 days.

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posted by Darren Power on 1:24 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Tuesday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Tuesday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live tip is Tana River in the 1410 at Hereford (all times GMT).
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has set out an ambitious plan for his star novice chaser Fundamentalist.
The horse will have two more outings both at Cheltenham before being prepared for a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Gold plan for Fundamentalist
His jockey Carl Llewellyn blamed himself for his defeat at Newbury on Saturday.
Today's racing comes from Newton Abbot, Hereford and Lingfield Park. "
posted by Darren Power on 9:58 AM

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Telegraph | Sport | Weighty issues will now be put on ice
Telegraph | Sport | Weighty issues will now be put on ice: "The Jockey Club's decision to freeze dope test samples is the most significant step towards protecting the fairness and integrity of racing since dope testing itself was introduced. One only has to look at what is going on in so many other sports to realise that this was a vital move.


I have never doubted the resolve of Peter Webbon, the streetwise Chief Veterinary Officer of the Jockey Club, to introduce this measure but I did doubt the political will of his masters. Yet again I was wrong and they should be warmly congratulated."
posted by Darren Power on 8:05 AM

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Monday, November 29, 2004
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin: "Monday's Five Live tip is Easibrook Jane in the 1300 at Folkestone (all times GMT).

Grand National-winning jockey Graham Lee faces a possible two months on the sidelines following a fall at Doncaster on Sunday.
Lee, riding Fields of Home, fell heavily at the third-last fence and broke his arm.
His agent Richard Hale said: 'Unfortunately, Graham has broken a bone in his arm and will be out for some time.'
Racing on Monday comes from Folkestone, Newcastle and Wolverhampton. "
posted by Darren Power on 10:09 AM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | British challenge falters in Japan
Phoenix Reach was the best of the British horses at the Japan Cup in Tokyo on Sunday, but could only manage sixth behind winner Zenno Rob Roy.
With Martin Dwyer in the saddle, Phoenix Reach stayed in contention until the home straight but could not keep pace with the pre-race favourite.

The £2.5m Grade One race attracted a strong European challenge with Phoenix Reach joined by Powerscourt, Warrsan, Policy Maker and Lune D'Or.



BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | British challenge falters in Japan
posted by Darren Power on 8:11 AM

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Friday, November 26, 2004
Bet 365 Weekend Review
Bet 365 Weekend Review

Hennessy Gold Cup (3m 2f), 14.40 Newbury
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Sa Nov 27
It’s a great weekend for jumps fans as we have cracking cards at Newbury and Newcastle. Many punters will believe that recent Cheltenham winner Celestial Gold will be a good thing, but let’s oppose him with Nick Gifford’s Joly Bey. Connections gave the 7 year old a pipe opener over hurdles at Chepstow last month and he’ll be strip fitter and spot on for the slog around the Berkshire track. Irish challenger Nil Desperandum has had his supporters all week and he looks well handicapped for success. The lightly raced Lord Transcend has only been beaten once in six starts and with Howard Johnson’s string coming into form, he has every chance.

bet365 Hennessy prices … Celestial Gold 10/3, Joly Bey 6/1, Nil Desperandum 7/1, Ollie Magern 8/1, Royal Auclair 8/1, Lord Transcend 8/1, others on bet365 website.


Newbury & Newcastle – Live on Channel 4
***************************************
At Newcastle Inglis Drever will be warm order for the Fighting Fifth and trainer Howard Johnson will be aiming to keep the prize in the North East of England. Contenders include previous winners Intersky Falcon, which is part-owned by Alan Shearer, and last year’s surprise 25/1 shot The French Furze. The latter, trained by Nicky Richards, landed a handicap at Ayr recently and he has every chance of following up last year’s success.


CHANNEL 4 OFFER
***************
Channel 4 are showing 6 races from Newbury and Newcastle this Saturday. Back a horse at 4/1 (or more) in any of these races and if it wins, we’ll give you your winnings and a free bet to the same stake on the next Channel 4 race!

For example - Have £50 on an 11/2 winner in the 15.00 Newcastle. Have your £50 FREE BET on the 15.15 Newbury, the next live Channel 4 race. If your FREE BET wins at 4/1 or over, have another £50 FREE BET on the 15.30 Newcastle.

Live Cheltenham Channel 4 races (subject to change):

Newbury: 14.05; 14.40; 15.15; 15.45
Newcastle: 15.00; 15.30.

posted by Darren Power on 8:42 PM

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HENNESSY Saturday 27th November 2.40 Newbury
A detailed review of the Hennessy fron The Mathematician


Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m2f110y)

Celestial Gold (11/4), Nil Desperandum (11/2), Ollie Magern (13/2), Lord Transcend (7/1), Royal Auclair (7/1), Frenchman s Creek (14/1), First Gold (16/1), Gunther Mcbride (16/1), Puntal (25/1), Lord Of The River (33/1), Midland Flame (33/1), Swansea Bay (33/1), Artic Jack (50/1), Supreme Glory (66/1)

The Hennessy Gold Cup should be a race that can be sorted statistically with some sensible application of statistics. This race strongly favours lightly raced, progressive second-season chasers, unexposed at the highest level. There is an abundance of strong statistics in this race, many of which will be publicly available but I think with a sensible and concentrated approach in the strongest trends will help to find the winner.

The Issues

Personally I am not expecting a shock result. I don't feel there is much strength in depth in this years race and the claims of the market leaders are strong. Deciding on which of these horses will win the race. There is no Outstanding runner from a statistical viewpoint and you have to decide what factors are the most relevant. What statistical failings are you prepared to forgive a horse for and why. CELESTIAL GOLD has to be forgiven the fact he comes from the Paddy Power Gold Cup, a notoriously poor trial race and he has to be forgiven several other factors like his age, and his record. BALLYCASSIDY has to be forgiven the fact he looks too exposed to win a Hennessy and he has had the wrong preparation over the wrong distances. LORD TRANSCEND is probably the best handicapped horse in the race but to bet him you have to turn a blind eye to his lack of Handicap Chase form, traditionally a Must in this race. You may then look to OLLIE MAGERN but he also fails certain trends in that he comes from a poor trial race amongst other factors. One thing we do know is that statistically there is no clear cut runner from the fancied runners that is flawless and all require us to make at least 1 allowance.Then you may feel the heavy market support for NIL DESPERANDUM is more significant than the statistical flaws.

You have to also pay strong attention to FRENCHMANS CREEK as he comes out very strong statistically this year if you are prepared to forgive his age and his long term injury.

The 4 Key Statistics

There are 4 Compelling statistics that I want to draw your attention to that really ought not to fail and should help considerably with narrowing down the field before any other stats and variables can apply. I am not applying them vigorously and will explain why later in the analysis. Common sense has to rule with applying statistics but the strongest trends I can find in this race are as follows

1) Your horse should not have ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup2) Your horse should have not had more than 20 career starts3) Your horse must have been placed 1-2-3 last time out4) Your horse must have run in a Handicap Chase before

Statistical Application

1) Your horse should not have ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup

The first angle I consider to be important is the relationship between the Paddy Power Gold Cup (Run November 13th) and the Hennessy (Nov 27th) as I believe the two races directly affect one another as they are so close together.

* Relationship between the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Hennessy

Both are Class Early season Handicap Chases. Personally I think the Hennessy is by far the easier of the 2 races to sort out .The Paddy Power gold cup is a very tough test ran 14 days before the Hennessy. I believe that a hard race in the Paddy Power Gold cup counts against a horse and it would be a truly exceptional performance to win a Hennessy over 26f, having come from a grueling test over 2.4 miles just 2 weeks before that .Although only 8 have tried this "double" in the last 13 years they have all failed abysmally. The 8 horses included horses that were beaten 20, 22, 23 and 60 lengths, 2 that Pulled up, one that fell when in last place and a 3rd that was easily beaten. I think you should severely question the chances of any horse that ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup .The following are the records of the 8 Horses that ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (today) and tried to win the Hennessy

Bindaree - 7th in the Paddy Power - 5th in the Hennessy (beaten 20 lengths)Lady Cricket - Won the Paddy Power - 4th in the Hennessy (beaten 22 lengths 8/1)Red Maruder - 4th in the Paddy Power - 5th in the Hennessy (beaten 23 lengths)Norski Lad - 9th in the Paddy Power - Pulled up in the HennessyThe Outback Way - Won the Paddy Power - Pulled up in the HennessyChallenger Du Luc - Won the Paddy Power - Fell in the Hennessy when lastCommercial Artist - 4th in the Paddy Power - 3rd in the HennessyTipping Tim- 7th in the Paddy Power - 10th in the Hennessy (beaten 60 lengths)

That suggests to me that we would be wise to question the merits of both CELESTIAL GOLD and OLLIE MAGERN

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2) Your horse should have not had more than 20 career starts

* The Over Raced and Over Exposed types

One key statistic for me in the Hennessy is the Following and this I believe tells you everything you need to know about what Type of horse is required to win this race. Horses that had 21 or more races over fences before have a very poor 0-47 record in the Hennessy. We can take that 0-47 statistic as a very solid one especially as 14 of the 47 runners that failed started 14/1 or under. We can also take the statistic further and look not only at the winners but at the First 4 places

Number of Career Races that the First 4 horses home had

2003 - 6-13-31-152002 -18 -16-18-112001- 18-18-18-142000 -16-13-14-181999 -12-22-17-351998 - 7-13-12-161997 -14-34-7-101996 - 5-15-31-201995 -17-21-31-461994 -16-8-39 -20

This table (above) shows that the Vast Majority of winners had less than 21 starts in their careers. What you find is that lightly raced horses can win, (Strong Flow won with 6 starts in 2003 as Did Teeton Mill with 7 starts in 1998 and Coombe Hill in 1996 with 5 starts) but the majority has between 13 and 20 races and that included the placed horses.

In fact if you look at the last 10 winners, none of them had over 18 career starts. The Hennessy is always won by an up and coming improving Chaser and horses that had less than 21 races fit that bill perfectly. In fact from the last 10 years, if you take the 40 possible places available, they have only been filled by horses that had over 20 races only eight times and that's a very low strike rate. Last year Take Control managed 3rd with 31 career races but he had already been placed in a previous Hennessy. He was the last horse to reach the frame with over 21 races since Spendid and The Last Fling in 1999 who were 2nd and 4th that year when overexposed. The 1999 Hennessy was a probably a statistical blip though as there were Only 13 runners that year, yet 7 of the 13 that ran were overexposed. In 1997 the Runner up did have 34 Career starts but that was Barton Bank who was after all a King George winner. Before that , the runner up in 1995 also raced over 20 times but he was Rough Quest who won a Grand National and who was after all beaten a long way in the Hennessy when runner up. You can also say that the 1995 Hennessy was another statistical blip as there were only 10 runners that year and 7 of the 10 had ran over 21 times yet they still could not provide the winner. Overall the History of this race strongly indicates that a horse that has had over 20 career races should be viewed as over exposed and very opposable. I would be very keen to avoid these types as History shows they simply don't win, and they very rarely even frame and those that have done have been King George and Grand National winners or had done so in years when the vast majority of runners had ran over 20 times.

In terms of this years race, we can then question PUNTAL (32 Races) , FIRST GOLD (34 Races) , LORD OR THE RIVER (22 Races), SUMPREME GLORY (21 Races) , SWANSEA BAY (30 Races) and GUNTER MCBRIDE (25 Races)

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3) Your horses must have been placed 1st 2nd or 3rd last time out

The 3rd Key statistic is that you simply must be in the 1-2-3 last time out. Horses that failed to achieve this before coming here have an appalling 0-77 record. You do not really want a horse that Failed to Place on his Latest start. Of Course it is possible that something may yet run and place, but at the moment we should be ignoring anything that did not have the ability to place last time as we must assume they do not have the Class to win a Hennessy. After all, 25 of the 77 horses were no bigger than 14/1 in the betting.

From the runners you can question the claims of OLLIE MAGERN and NIL DESPERANDUM from the Market leaders , as well as ARCTIC JACK , SWANSEA BAY , LORD OF THE RIVER and MIDLAND FLAME from the outsiders as none of these have recorded a 1-2-3 finish last time out.

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4) Your horse must have ran in a Handicap Chase before

Handicap Experience is a vital necessity for the Hennessy and going back to 1988 you can see the need for experience in Handicap Company before.

2003 - The First 3 home had 1-2-15 Handicap Chase Starts2002 - The First 3 home had 7-0-3 Handicap Chase Starts2001 - The First 3 home had 1-1-3 Handicap Chase Starts2000 - The First 3 home had 1-2-0 Handicap Chase Starts1999 - The First 3 home had 1-1-5 Handicap Chase Starts1998 - The First 3 home had 1-6-5 Handicap Chase Starts1997 - The First 3 home had 7-4-1 Handicap Chase Starts1996 - The First 3 home had 2-1-11 Handicap Chase Starts1995 - The First 3 home had 8-12-14 Handicap Chase Starts1994 - The First 3 home had 1-1-11 Handicap Chase Starts1993 - The First 3 home had 1-11-4 Handicap Chase Starts1992 - The First 3 home had 11-2-0 Handicap Chase Starts1991 - The First 3 home had 3-3-13 Handicap Chase Starts1990 - The First 3 home had 1-9-1 Handicap Chase Starts1989 - The First 3 home had 1-1-15 Handicap Chase Starts1988 - The First 3 home had 8-14-8 Handicap Chase Starts

You can see from the Above Tables that EVERY winner since 1988 had ran in a Handicap Chase before and from the 48 possible placings (1st x 3 places) we saw 45 of them filled by horses that had ran in a Handicap Chase before. In fact the ONLY 3 Horses that managed to place in this race having never run in a Handicap before were as follows.

1) Harbour Pilot the 2nd in 2002 who raced off 139 and was thrown in. He ended up rated 166 and finished 3rd in a Cheltenham Gold Cup the following March

2) Alexander Banquet the 3rd in 2000 but a horse that was soon to be rated 18lbs higher and won the Irish Hennessy Gold cup afterwards. He was also beaten 20 lengths when 3rd in 2000 so he hardly looked like winning.

3) The Fellow was 3rd in 2000 without a race in a Handicap Chase but as we now knowHe was Top Class and went on to win a King George and a Cheltenham Gold Cup.

What this shows is that there is an extraordinary demand for at least 1 race in Handicap Company and that puts various question marks about several fancied runners in this Years race. These include LORD TRANSCEND (0 Handicap Chase runs and only 1 race in Novice Chases) and NIL DESPERANDUN (0 Handicap Chase runs and only 4 races in Chases.

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There are several more trends that I feel are worth bearing in mind. These are as follows.

1) The Previous years Cheltenham Festival

Since 1996 the winners profile changed. Prior to 1996 there was no problem with horses running well at the previous years Cheltenham festival. Since 1996 though all the Hennessy winners did not race at the previous years Cheltenham festival except the 2000 winner Kings Road. He didn't have a hard race at Cheltenham though; he just hunted around at the back of the Sun Alliance and came home in his own time. No other past winner post 1996 had ran at Cheltenham and from the 24 possible placed runners during that time, 17 of them were filled by horses that did not run at Cheltenham. Obviously a run at Cheltenham can both take it out of a horse and gives the handicapper a chance to assess it accurately. It can be done but I do feel its a negative.

2) Badger Beer Wincanton Form

Horses that come from the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton have an excellent record. From the 13 that have tried in recent history there were 3 that went on to win the Hennessy and it is the best trial race available.

3) Age - Horses aged 10 and over struggle

Horses aged 10 and over look weak. The full record is 0-32 in the last 12 years. It is very unlikely that a horse of that age would have enough scope and have enough in front of the handicapper to beat younger improving chasers. I cant possibly comprehend a horse aged 10 or over winning this race. In fact the only horse that managed to frame aged 10 and over in the last 12 years was the Top Class Barton Bank who was 2nd in a small field way back in 1997. What I would say though is to not count FRENCHMANS CREEK as a 10 year old as he has had over 2 years off the track so I would view him as more of an 8 year old myself and I wouldn't be discounting him at all as I think he has a massive chance .

4) 6 Year Olds - Don't believe stats that show you 6 year olds can not win.

Many guides and Publications will tell you that 6 year olds have poor records.You may see stats opposing 6 year olds. Before Strong Flow won as a 6-year old last year, the stats showed that 19 of the previous 20 winners had been aged 7, 8 or 9 and that 6 year olds were very poor and opposable. Prior to STRONG FLOW (2003) you had to go back to One Man in 1994 to win as a 6 year old and he was thrown in that year. I would be wary of the "oppose 6 years old" arguments. After all Behrajan was beaten in a photo as a 6y-old in 2001 and the 3rd in 2002 was also a 6 year old and with better horses and training methods that stat could be weak and about to change. I would therefore advise that we don't make 6 year olds a "negative" at all these days (especially if they have a light weight) and I would be far more inclined to see horses aged 10 and over as the real negatives.

5) Weight - There is a Bias against high weights

There is a Bias against high weights. Horses that had over 11st in weight are 1-38 .Only High Class Horses can carry over 11st in weight. There have only been 4 that have done this in the last 20 years and they were Suny Bay, Arctic Call, Burrough Hill lad and Brown Chamberlain. In fact 18 of the last 24 Placed horses carried less than 10st 13lbs. You do need to be aware that this could be a race that's slowly moving towards horses over 11st.

Last years winner carried 11st and it is a trend that could shift towards classier horses soon but as it stands you don't really want a horse with over 11st unless you can find very good reason to bet them.

6) Temperament - Horses that ran in Blinkers or a Visor before have a poor record (1-41)Obviously a High Class race won by a High Class horse and no surprise that horses that require headgear should be viewed suspiciously.

7) Jumping Ability - You do not want a horse that failed to complete twice recentlyObviously this is not a race to be making jumping errors in. The Statistics show that If a horse failed to complete in at least 2 of his last 6 races he is vulnerable as the record of this type is 0-45. You can only afford 1 incomplete start in your last 6 races

8) Recent Class Form

The record of horses that came from Class A or Graded Class is 2-75 and this type should be seen as opposable. You want a horse that's about to show Class form and not really a horse that has just shown it especially as these types are often accurately judged by the Handicapper. Considering that horses coming from Class A or Graded Class are either dropping in Class or running in the same class, the 2-75 statistic looks quite strong.

9) Distance Droppers

Horses that ran over 3m 2.5f or longer last time are only 1-44 and are out speeded and possibly lack the speed to win this race. The only horse from the 44 that tried that had managed this was WHATS UP BOYS who was 2nd in the 2001 Whitbread Gold Cup before winning the Hennessy. Its unusual and such horses should be treated cautiously.

10) Seasonal Debutantes

Seasonal Debutantes have a weak record. Only 2 managed to win from 58 that tried and that was mainly several years ago. In fact 10 of the last 11 winners had a run that year

11) Stamina and Class

The last 11 winners had all a) Won over 3 miles and b) Won a Class B race or better as this race demands both Class and Stamina.

12) Second Season Chasers

This is a race that strongly favours Second Season Chasers.

13) Official Ratings

The last 12 winners were all rated between 135 and 149 except for Suny Bay (162)This statistic is boosted by the fact that 18 of the last 24 placed horses were also rated between 135 and 149.

*********************************STATISTICAL SUMMARY

This is a quick approach to provide a score or rating for each horse based on the stats discussed above.

Failing a Major Statistic is -2ptsFailing a Minor Statistic is -1pts

The Horse with the LOWEST Number of points is the best statistically

Below is the perceived Finishing order statistically

FRENCHMAN'S CREEK Fails 0 Major Statistic and Fails 2 Minor Statistic - TOTAL 2PTSCelestial Gold Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 1Minor Statistics - TOTAL 3 PTSLord Transcend Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 1Minor Statistics - TOTAL 3 PTSGunther Mcbride Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 2 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 4 PTSMidland Flame Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 3 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 5 PTSRoyal Auclair Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 4 Minor Statistics -TOTAL 6 PTSArtic Jack Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 4 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 6 PTSSwansea Bay Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 2 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 6 PTSLord Of The River Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 3 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 7 PTSSupreme Glory Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 5 Minor Statistics- TOTAL 7 PTSPuntal Fails 1 Major Statistic and Fails 6 Minor Statistics - TOTAL 8 PTSOllie Magern Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 2Minor Statistics - TOTAL 8 PTSNil Desperandum Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 2Minor Statistics - TOTAL 8 PTSFirst Gold Fails 2 Major Statistics and Fails 8 Minor Statistic - TOTAL 12 PTS



SOME NEGATIVES

FIRST GOLD 33/1

This class French runner has huge statistical problems to overcome. He has Topweight of 11st 12lbs and very few horses have managed that, and as an 11 year old that task is compounded further. The full record of horses with over 11st is only 1 from 38 in recent years and the placed horses have also performed dismally when carrying large weights. His age (11) is also a serious problem. The full record of horses aged 10 or over is 0-32 in the last 12 years and he lacks no scope and must be vulnerable to just about everything in this years field.

PUNTAL 40/1

Has a host of statistical failings to overcome. He is a seasonal debutante (2-58 record) and has fallen in 2 of his last 3 races. He is also a 4th season chaser with 32 races under his belt making him one of the most exposed runners in the race. He also ran at last years festival which appears a negative these days and he has to overcome all these burdens rated 149 and thats a tall order as 11 of the last 12 winners had less of a task when successful. It would be an astonishing training performance were he to win.

THE MAIN CONTENDERS

CELESTIAL GOLD 11/4

I have let him in the Provisional Shortlist simply as a mark of respect as he is favourite but I don't like his chance as he fails one of the key statistics having won the Paddy Power Gold cup. Clearly Cheltenham is his track, and he may not be as suited to Newbury and his only start there resulted in a poor run. Because he comes from the Graveyard race, and because he is favourite I feel he has to be opposed on grounds of value anyway and if the Paddy Power is as poor a race as I think it is, then he has it all to do. I also feel that he is vulnerable on the fact that he ran very well at the 2004 Cheltenham festival. History shows that in recent years a strong run at last years Festival is not the best preparation and this horse was 2nd in the National Hunt Chase last year. I also think his price is very short. The truth is nobody knows how his Cheltenham win will affect his chance. David Johnson has already pointed out the possibility that he might bounce, as he has done before and although well handicapped and likely to improve at the distance he has no real right to be 11/4 with so many serious dangers and flaws in his own chance.

LORD TRANSCEND 7/1

Very interesting horse. In terms of ability he is easily talented enough. He was a high class Hurdler rated 150, and although the winner of his only chase start last November in a Novice Chase, he appears thrown in off 135. Only having 1 race over fences could easily be his downfall, and his inexperience is his biggest problem. A Canter round in a sole novice chase just 365 days ago is simply not good enough to offer us a decent value bet at his price impressive as he was. He jumped superbly that day and looked a high class prospect. After that win he suffered a tendon injury. His connections cant hide their belief in him. Howard Johnson recently stated "He's a very special horse and I didn't want to take any chances with him, so I had him fired and gave him plenty of time off. It wasn't that serious, but we went very steady with him as I adore him. He has been given a provisional rating of 135 and racing off a light weight he could win a Hennessy no problem if we can get him ready in time. The alternative would be to bring him back in January and bring him back for the second half of the season". The issue is clearly whether the horse has shown he is ready to run and has fully recovered from his injury. Should he run he can win as he is a clean winded horse that can win fresh and loves a left handed track. He wont be risked unless he is absolutely right and if he does make the race you have to consider him as he has a similar profile to last years winner . I could not advise him as the selection because of his inexperience and the fact that he has No Handicap form. As explained earlier that is a very serious statistical failure and why he isn't my bet. You also have to worry about the Stable Vibes which have been mixed all week. He has been described as not a certain runner. He has been reported to have missed work due to weather conditions and a horse as inexperienced as this would need to be at his ultimate best to win a Hennessy on his 2nd start and the vibes don't suggest that.

ROYAL AUCLAIR 7/1

This was certainly one of the best value bets in the race when he was 16/1 but at 7/1 he is no longer. Had you asked me 2 weeks ago for the most likely selection then this horse would have been the one despite not being statistically perfect? Statistically he is technically overexposed with 23 runs (You don't want more than 20) but I wouldn't have a problem overlooking that fact as he has so many other factors in his favour. Clearly a breathing operation has transformed him and horses can improve a massive amount for that. His resolution in the past has been called into question but his trained believes he wasn't quite right last year and he now may be over his problems. His trainer stated recently "Last year it took forever to get him right, but this time his work has been brilliant, and he has shown enormous improvement on the gallops at home. He has been laid out for the Hennessy all year and I feel that he could now well be about to deliver the long awaited promise. Breathing operations can transform certain horses and this may be the key to this horse. He comes from a highly significant trial (Badger Ales Trophy) at Wincanton, a race that was used successfully by the 1996 winner (Coombe Hill), the 1998 winner (Teeton Mill) and the 2000 winner (Kings Road). It would be very short sighted to ignore his multiple strengths based on the failure of statistics that he only just fails as several others also fail multiple stats as well. At 16/1 I would have been prepared to take the view that he is now a horse that has been rejuvenated by a wind operation and his already high class form last year (3rd at the Cheltenham Festival and runner up in the Whitbread) can now be bettered. At 9/1 though I am not. I don't like the fact that he had a hard race at last years Festival, and then ran again before having a hard race in the Whitbread. He isn't the normal type you associate with a Hennessy and he looks overexposed and vulnerable. The issue with him is whether the improvement he can now find from his wind operation can match or better the improvement that is certain to be found by the lighter raced types and the improvers. At 16/1 I would have been prepared to risk him at that price to find out. At 7/1 I am not.

OLLIE MAGERN 6/1

Exciting Novice. My first problem with him is his run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup which I have to see as a negative. Reasons why are explained elsewhere. He also failed to finish 1-2-3 last time and although you could argue that a 4th last time in the Paddy Power should not automatically bar him; the fact it was in the Paddy Power Gold cup is a compounded problem. This will be his 5th race this year and that's very abnormal for a Hennessy winner and certainly for a horse that has never won a Handicap Chase before. It would be pointless to assess his run against Celestial Gold last time on revised weights as the victor between them in the Hennessy may depend on involuntary factors such as who recovers best from the race. He has a chance as many are also statistically flawed but betting him does force you to ask several questions about his profile. I don't see why he should be backed in particular over several of the other front runners in the market.

NIL DESPERANDUM 9/2

This has been the big Ante Post gamble this week having been backed down from 20/1 to 7/1 and that does look highly significant. He was A promising Novice Chaser that missed most of last year with injury and has not raced since April 2004 when 4th or 4 at Punchestown. It would be pedantic to rule him on failing to be in the 1-2-3 last time out, but he does have other problems to defy. I suppose you can argue that as Strong Flow came from a Novice Chase last year before winning this, that it is perfectly possible to do the same but it has not been the norm and the full record is only 1-34. The record of Irish raiders was poor before Gingembres win in 2002 so you could argue that that should not be held against this horse either. My 2 worries are lack of handicap experience and the distance. NIL DESPERANDUM has never run in a Handicap either over fences or hurdles before and that's a problem for me, especially as he has to do that on his seasonal debut. I have already illustrated the dreadful record of horses that lacked Handicap Form before earlier in the analysis. The Trip is also a question mark. He hasn't run within 4 furlongs of this test before despite his trainer stating 'Two and a half miles might just be a bit short for him, especially first time out. We see him as more of a three-mile horse. Prior to his market support you could have argued his well being was an issue. After all He was due to run at Gowran park but missed that run after a stone bruise forced him to miss a lot of work, and his intended race at Down Royal in Beef or Salmons race was also cancelled. He didn't look the same horses last year when returning from injury and it remains to be seen if he is back to his best. You could argue that his recent support in the market is so compelling that you have to assume he is showing signs that he is back to his best. Whether that means he can win a Hennessy on his seasonal debut is entirely another matter. He may well have been a sensible risk at 20/1 but at 9/2 he isn't for me.

FRENCHMANS CREEK 14/1

This has an outstanding chance for me now that the race has cut up and now he has had a prep race. Statistical punters may throw him out as a 10 year old automatically but that's a big mistake as although he is a 10 year old he has missed over 2 seasons and is effectively "net 8 years old" . He also passes all the 4 key statistics in not being over raced, having less than 20 starts , not running in the Paddy Power and having Handicap Form. Looking at the other stats he sails through almost all of them. He has a light weight . He missed the festival last year. His record is excellent and he has won or been placed on the vast majority of his starts over fences. He ran very well in his comeback race behind Best Mate recently on his 1st start for 30 months recently and although he could "Bounce" , I don't feel he will as it wasn't a gut wrenching run. He could be the best value in the race at 14/1 now the ground has gone to good.

I have backed him at that price.

Guy Ward
The Mathematician


===================
Subscribe to The Mathematician Free Service for future major race analysis such as the above at
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=================

posted by Darren Power on 8:34 PM

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Free Tips
Free Saturday tips are online at www.on-line-tips.co.uk/saturday

posted by Darren Power on 8:33 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Friday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Friday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is The Local in the 1410 at Bangor (all times GMT).
There are a trio of race meetings on Friday - with action coming from Bangor on Dee, Musselburgh and Wolverhampton.
Soft ground at Bangor should be ideal for The Local, which runs in the 1410.
Formerly trained by Nick Gaselee, the horse is now with Charlie Egerton, who has engaged Tony McCoy to ride.
The Local loves to make his own running and did so when winning at Plumpton last season. He should be the ideal type of horse for McCoy. "
posted by Darren Power on 12:02 PM

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Thursday, November 25, 2004
BBC Thursday's racing bulletin
The Five Live selection is Lady Racquet in the 1445 at Taunton (all times GMT).

Tony McCoy made a triumphant return to the saddle at Wetherby on Wednesday which puts added pressure on Richard Johnson, who returns from three weeks on the sick list with four rides at Taunton on Thursday.

Johnson injured his hip when a horse reared over on top of him in the paddock.

Full Story


posted by Darren Power on 1:00 PM

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Wednesday, November 24, 2004
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Wednesday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Wednesday's racing bulletin: "The ante-post gamble continues on the Irish-trained Nil Desperadum for Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup.
His inexperience over fences does not seem to be deterring punters who have backed the horse from 16/1 to less than half that price.
Provided top weight First Gold stands his ground Nil Desperadum has only 10st 8Ib on his back.
Mick Fitzgerald has been booked to ride the gamble.
Wednesday's racing takes place at Wetherby, Chepstow and Lingfield Park. "
posted by Darren Power on 9:57 AM

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Telegraph | Sport | My Sport: Frankie Dettori
Telegraph | Sport | My Sport: Frankie Dettori: "Earliest sporting memory: Playing football in the courtyard at school in Milan, and watching the 1978 World Cup at the family house in Sardegna, by myself, when I was seven. I was obsessed with football growing up.

Sports watched: Golf and football mainly. I love watching golf, but can't watch it all the time because of work; I find it easier to keep up with the American Tour in golf because it is on at a different time. But I try not to miss the Ryder Cup and the majors. I'm a big Arsenal fan. I took my son to his first game on Saturday. He has been pestering me to take him. We have to wash his kit because he wears his Arsenal shirt every day. I also love boxing - my dad was an amateur when I was a kid. I also follow Formula One, and, yes, I'm a Ferrari fan."
posted by Darren Power on 7:56 AM

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Tuesday, November 23, 2004
Betfair £100 offer
Betfair are currently offering a £100 cashback offer for new members.

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posted by Darren Power on 9:06 AM

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Monday, November 22, 2004
Telegraph | News | All for the love of Anne
Telegraph | News | All for the love of Anne: "In life, Henry Yearley was a timid 'grey man in a grey suit' who would do anything for his beloved wife - even steal �1.5 million. Even at the end, he embraced her as they were hit by a 100mph express train. Andrew Alderson reveals the bizarre double life that ended in a chilling suicide pact
Anne Yearley always regarded that day in August last year as the happiest of her life. One of her favourite horses, Terfel, galloped to victory in her royal blue and emerald green racing colours to win �29,284 in prize money in a race at York."
posted by Darren Power on 12:58 PM

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BBC NEWS | England | West Midlands | Horse disappearance investigated
BBC NEWS | England | West Midlands | Horse disappearance investigated: "Police are investigating the alleged disappearance of a horse from a racecourse in Wolverhampton.
The Jockey Club say My Bayard was removed from its stable at the racecourse on Saturday night.
The five-year-old is believed to have been taken in a dispute over ownership. The incident was filmed on CCTV.
My Bayard was due to have its first run for trainer John Balding in the Littlewoods Bet Direct Handicap on Friday but was declared a non-runner. "
posted by Darren Power on 12:57 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin: "Monday's racing bulletin

The Five Live selection is Snipe in the 1320 at Ludlow (all times GMT).
Racing comes from Southwell, Lingfield and Ludlow on Monday.
The ground at Southwell, where they get under way at 1200, is standard.
Jim Lawless, who had not sat on a horse a year ago, has his first competitive ride on Airgusta in the opening race.
The ground at Lingfield, where they get underway at 1310, is also standard on the artificial track. "
posted by Darren Power on 12:56 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Silver Birch claims Aintree win
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Silver Birch claims Aintree win: "Silver Birch claims Aintree win

Latest results
Silver Birch held off Just In Debt to win the Becher Handicap Chase in the hands of Ruby Walsh.
The seven-year-old was always in the lead group and took up the running at Aintree when Ardent Scout unseated his rider at the ninth of the 22 fences.
The 4-1 favourite was challenged strongly by 33-1 shot Just In Debt in the run-in but won by a length, drawing praise from trainer Paul Nicholls. "
posted by Darren Power on 9:10 AM

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Friday, November 19, 2004
Free Tips
Free tips have been uploaded at On Line Tips

www.on-line-tips.co.uk/saturday



posted by Darren Power on 7:15 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Friday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Friday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Trouble at Bay in the 1510 at Windsor (all times GMT).
Officials at Exeter racecourse are expecting in excess of 6,000 people to witness the seasonal debut of triple Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Best Mate.
Ridden by Timmy Murphy for the first time, Best Mate only has three rivals but they include Sir Rembrandt, who was only beaten by half a length at Cheltenham. "
posted by Darren Power on 10:27 AM

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The Virtual FormGuide - AAP - 18/11/04 Ouija Board Wins UK Horse Of The Year
The Virtual FormGuide - AAP - 18/11/04 Ouija Board Wins UK Horse Of The Year: "Three-year-old filly Ouija Board took out Britain's highest award when she was named Horse of the Year in London.
The filly, who is owned by Lord Derby and trained by Ed Dunlop at Newmarket, won two Classics, the Vodafone Oaks at Epsom and the Darley Irish Oaks at the Curragh before finishing third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.
She ended her season by capturing the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Lone Star Park in Texas last month.
Ouija Board also won the Cartier Three-Year-Old Filly Award and remains in training next year.
She finished ahead of Soviet Song, Bago, Attraction and Divine Proportions in the race for the Horse Of The Year Award and beat Attraction, Quiff, Grey Lilas and Alexander Goldrun for the Three-Year-Old Filly Award."
posted by Darren Power on 7:52 AM

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Thursday, November 18, 2004
Telegraph | Money | Punters face bet exchange 'black hole'
Administrators at collapsed betting exchange Sporting Options said yesterday its punters are owed £3.6m. However, Menzies Corporate Restructuring said their accounts contained less than £100,000.



Paul Clark, one of the co-administrators, said: "We feel it is unlikely that we will be able to make an early distribution to the clients from the funds that we are holding. Any such distribution would in any event be minimal."

Mr Duncan said that in addition to punters, Sporting Options owed up to £400,000 to creditors and two weeks wages to staff.




Telegraph | Money | Punters face bet exchange 'black hole'
posted by Darren Power on 9:17 AM

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Wednesday, November 17, 2004
Telegraph | Sport | The day Mick threw Tom to the sharks
Telegraph | Sport | The day Mick threw Tom to the sharks: "Love is all around us. Racing's established eligible bachelor club has suffered a couple hits in the last week from which it may never fully recover. Only the unlikely event of Carl Llewellyn succumbing to an overriding wish to settle down would comesas more of a surprise.


Tom Jenks, the former jump jockey, was the first to go when he announced his engagement to Kate Morgan. She is the sister of twin titans of the tartan turf, brothers Ran and Luke Morgan who, you may remember, both got done for use of the whip fighting out their first finish together last spring."
posted by Darren Power on 7:45 AM

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Tuesday, November 16, 2004
Tuesday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Tuesday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is is The Bar Maid in the 1540 at Towcester (all times GMT).
Jockey Timmy Murphy has told BBC Radio Five Live's Breakfast programme he is looking forward to riding Best Mate on his seasonal re-appearance at Exeter on Friday.
Murphy schooled the three-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner over fences last Saturday and was delighted.
'He is straightforward and jumps superbly, I don't foresee any problems' he said.
The horse will face a maximum of six rivals which includes Sir Rembrandt who he just beat in last years Gold Cup. "
posted by Darren Power on 9:48 AM

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ic Liverpool - Horus hits the heights at last
ic Liverpool - Horus hits the heights at last: "AS usual, the useful chaser Horus stood out in the parade ring.
The nine-year-old is a horse you could back on appearance without ever looking at the formbook.
Problem is that his form hasn't matched his looks - until yesterday.
Pulled up in his two most recent races, and unseating his rider in another pair, didn't inspire the greatest of confidence in the gelding.
But with the Martin Pipe stable in such irresistible form - seven winners at Cheltenham's 'Open' meeting - Horus was backed down to 4-1 for the Edward Hanmer Memorial Chase at Haydock."
posted by Darren Power on 8:44 AM

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Monday, November 15, 2004
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Kiwi Babe in the 1440 at Folkestone (all times GMT).
There are three meetings today - at Folkestone, Leicester and Wolverhampton.
Folkestone gets under way at 1240 and the chase course is absolutely perfect - good ground. The hurdles course is slightly softer - it's good to soft, soft in places.
Horses will chances include Flying Patriach, who will be ridden by champion jockey Tony McCoy, in the first race.
Ruby Walsh also has a couple of good chances with Chief Tartar in the 1340 and he also ride Kiwi Babe in the 1430.
At Leicester, where they start at 1250, it is good, good to firm in places on the chase course - but good to soft in the last furlong. "
posted by Darren Power on 11:13 AM

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Horse racing: Celestial Gold wins Paddy Power Gold Cup
Guardian Unlimited Sport | Horse racing | Horse racing: Celestial Gold wins Paddy Power Gold Cup: "Celestial Gold provided the highlight of a 801-1 four-timer for Martin Pipe, Timmy Murphy and owner David Johnson when driven out to beat Thisthatandtother by a length-and-three-quarters in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, giving Pipe his sixth win in the race, five of them for Johnson.
Pipe has a winning record as long as your arm at this meeting, but even for him this was something special. For Murphy, whose job as Johnson's retained jockey has not been without a few teething problems, it was by far the best day of a topsy-turvy career.
Sacked twice by his former employer Paul Nicholls, Murphy spent nearly three months in prison in the summer of 2002 after indecently assaulting a stewardess on an aeroplane when returning from riding in Japan. Many of his problems were because of his addiction to alcohol and when given the job by Johnson it was seen by many as a last chance. "
posted by Darren Power on 7:42 AM

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Saturday, November 13, 2004
Saturday Tips
The free tips from On-Line-Tips are online at www.on-line-tips.co.uk/saturday


posted by Darren Power on 1:11 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Saturday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Saturday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Farmer Jack in the 1445 at Cheltenham (all times GMT).
Cheltenham's Paddy Power Gold Cup at 1445 is the highlight on a busy afternoon of horse racing.
The valuable contest has attracted a quality field of 14 which include last year's winner Fondmort, the well-handicapped Monkerhostin and the improving novice Ollie Magern.
The dark horse in the race is Monkerhostin's stablemate Farmer Jack. "
posted by Darren Power on 12:19 PM

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Telegraph | Sport | Gehm's costly error
Telegraph | Sport | Gehm's costly error: "
Gehm's costly error
By Marcus Armytage
(Filed: 13/11/2004)


Spot The Difference, trained by Irish cross-country specialist Enda Bolger for JP McManus, was a lucky winner of the Sporting Index Chase at Cheltenham yesterday.


Having found his way around the first three and a half miles, Peter Gehm, riding the Czech-trained favourite Registana, took the wrong course up the home straight, jumping a chase fence instead of the brush fence beside."
posted by Darren Power on 12:18 PM

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Friday, November 12, 2004
Sporting Odds offer
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posted by Darren Power on 1:44 PM

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BBC SPORT | Friday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Friday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Registana in the 1420 at Cheltenham (all times GMT).
Friday's racing comes from Cheltenham, Newcastle and Wolverhampton.
The action at Cheltenham is straight from the top drawer with 77 runners contesting the six-race programme.
The Sporting Index cross-country race at 1420 is the feature event. "
posted by Darren Power on 11:47 AM

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Cheltenham Open Meeting Review
Courtesey of Bet 365
Fr Nov 12 – Su Nov 14
The Paddy Power Gold Cup is the highlight of this cracking three-day fixture and the main event is setting up nicely for Tikram, whose form was on an upward curve when last seen out in the spring. After coming from off the pace to win the Mildmay of Flete over course and distance, the seven-year-old came back to Cheltenham the following month to run another excellent race in a valuable handicap. All of which tells us that he loves the track, will find the trip and going ideal, and is still possibly improving. His trainer Gary Moore reports him to be in good nick for his reappearance after a racecourse gallop at Lingfield on Tuesday morning. The selection for this race would have been Martin Pipe’s Our Vic, who was ante-post favourite for this race before a minor injury forced his withdrawal from the race on Monday morning. Pipe has won this race six times in all, so his remaining two runners still merit the closest attention, and the best of theses could be the relatively unexposed Celestial Gold. His future may be lie over longer distances, but with top weight Fondmort an intended runner he will have just 10st2lb to carry, and will be staying on well when some of the others have cried enough.
Sunday’s Greatwood Hurdle looks an ideal opportunity for Power Elite to take advantage of the 24lb he receives from former champion hurdler Rooster Booster. After a chequered juvenile season – won twice in good style but missed Cheltenham and Aintree due to muck in his lungs – he has returned to action fitter and stronger to win two flat races, showing a useful turn of foot to quickly settle the outcome. Those races will have put him spot on, while he should be well suited to this strong-galloping two mile contest after staying on well at the end of his races last season. If the weights stay as they are he would look well treated off just 10st2lb, and can take this race before going on to better things.

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Live Cheltenham Channel 4 races (subject to change):-
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Saturday: 14.10; 14.45 (Paddy Power Gold Cup); 15.20; 15.55.
Sunday: 13.35; 14.05; 14.40 (Greatwood Hurdle); 15.15.
Channel 4 will also be showing one live race from both Uttoxeter and Wetherby on Saturday, and the Edward Hanmer Memorial Handicap Chase from Haydock on Sunday.

posted by Darren Power on 7:37 AM

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Bet 365 offer
Back a horse at 4/1 (or more) in any of these races and if it wins, we'll give you your winnings and a free bet to the same stake (up to £50) on the next Channel 4 race!

*For example:Have £50 on an 11/2 winner in the 13.45 Cheltenham on Friday. Have your £50 FREE BET on the 14.20 Cheltenham, the next live Channel 4 race.

If your FREE BET wins at 4/1 or over, have another £50 FREE BET on the 14.55 Cheltenham.Cheltenham's Live Channel 4 races (subject to change):-Friday: 13.10; 13.45; 14.20; 14.55.Saturday: 14.10; 14.45 (Paddy Power Gold Cup); 15.20; 15.55.Sunday: 13.35; 14.05; 14.40 (Greatwood Hurdle); 15.15.The offer will also include all live races from Uttoxeter and Wetherby on Saturday, and the Edward Hanmer Memorial Chase (14.55) from Haydock on Sunday. Click Here to Bet



posted by Darren Power on 7:36 AM

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Thursday, November 11, 2004
Monker to seize power?
Betting Update courtesey of Victor Chandler

VC Bet's resolve about Monkerhostin's Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase chances continues to strengthen after the firm's racing traders again cut the Coral Cup champion in the lead up to Saturday’s race.Since VC Bet's opening show of 9/2 at the beginning of the month the Phillip Hobbs-trained 7-yr-old has been traded at 4s, 7/2 and is currently available at 3/1 for the 2m 4f contest that is the highlight of the three-day Open meeting at Cheltenham.

”Monkerhostin looked very impressive in winning at Stratford recently and we are expecting a bold showing from last year’s Coral Cup winner,” said spokesman Ian Marmion.Using price as a guide Monkerhostin’s main challenge looks set to come from Thisthatandtother.

Paul Nicholls’ 8-yr-old, now quoted at 5/1, was traded heavily at 16/1 before the withdrawals of Our Vic and Redemption.Despite bulging liabilities about Thisthatandtother, 8/1 Fondmort is currently the firm’s biggest liability.Lumpy support at 14/1 earlier this week means that the 2003 winner of this race is now a heavy five- figure loser.

Race odds:Monkerhostin 3/1 Thisthatandtother 5/1 Fondmort, 8/1 Farmer Jack 8/1 Tikram 10/1 Ollie Magern 12/1 Take The Stand 14/1 Celestial Gold 14/1 Le Duc 16/1 Ground Ball 16/1 Kelrev 16/1 Colca Canyon 16/1 It Takes Time 16/1 Better Days 20/1 Atum Re 33/1 Ballycassidy 40/1 Simply Gifted 40/1 All quoted. EW 1/4 1,2,3,4.

posted by Darren Power on 5:25 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Thursday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Thursday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Dhaudeloup in the 1300 at Ludlow (all times GMT).
Racing today takes place at Ludlow, Lingfield Park,Taunton and Wolverhampton.
Mick Fitzgerald is riding superbly at present and Nicky Henderson's stable jockey can continue that good run of form aboard Out of the Black in Ludlow's 1330.
The horse was outclassed at Cheltenham last time out but should be too good for today's opposition.
Best bet of the day is Dhaudeloup in the 1300. Formerly a decent horse with trainer Richard Fahy, the horse is now trained by Alan Juckes. "
posted by Darren Power on 10:17 AM

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SOCCER AND RACING LOSE 'DATA' CASE

2004-Nov-10 11:19

Soccer and horse racing governing bodies will lose out on millions of pounds by not being able to charge for information such as fixture lists and runners and riders.

It follows a decision by the European Court of Justice (ECJ), ruling that the bodies can only charge for this information where they have made an “investment” in their databases, reports the UK’s Daily Telegraph newspaper.
As a soccer fixture list, for example, only contained information about who are playing where and when, they could not charge for its use.

The case began four years ago, following a European Commission directive seeking to protect the copyright of databases.



Full Story
posted by Darren Power on 7:37 AM

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Wednesday, November 10, 2004
Football Cash Generator Review
"Football Cash Generator
Is it really any good?
The answer is yes. It took me about 6 weeks to finally make the decision to buy Football Cash Generator and I'm probably like you in that I thought it was just another rip off.
So I finally got round to it. Even as I was reading I thought it can't be that easy & I was mentally planning my refund request. But first I had to try it.
Well I've tried it and made a profit on every match so far. I've been testing to relatively small stakes and am now happy to increase them gradually."
Football Cash Generator Review:
posted by Darren Power on 5:03 PM

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Racing: Contraband the banker to land Pipe's gamble
Full Story: "By Sue Montgomery
10 November 2004
Perhaps appropriately, Martin Pipe chose to show off some of the perceived highflyers among his Pond House team yesterday alongside the yard helicopter pad. The 14-times champion jumps trainer is duly setting the pace in defence of his title but his dominance is not yet definitive. Friday at Cheltenham, though, may be time for take-off."
posted by Darren Power on 9:11 AM

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Tuesday, November 09, 2004
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Johnson misses Cheltenham rides
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Johnson misses Cheltenham rides: "Injured jockey Richard Johnson must sit out Cheltenham's big meeting at the weekend after X-rays revealed he suffered pelvic damage in a fall.
Johnson will miss the rides on Paddy Power Gold Cup favourite Monkerhostin on Saturday and Rooster Booster in the Greatwood Hurdle the following day.
He was thrown from a novice hurdler in the paddock at Haydock last Thursday.
Johnson, who initially thought he had sustained only minor injuries, hopes to return before the end of November. "
posted by Darren Power on 3:50 PM

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BBC SPORT |New sponsor boosts Grand National - A Working Man's Sponsor
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | New sponsor boosts Grand National: "The Grand National at Aintree is to be sponsored by John Smith's ale in a new multi-million pound deal.
Earlier this year, Martell announced it would end its 12-year association with the big race.
The new deal for the three-day National meeting will begin with the fixture which takes place from 7-9 April, 2005. "
posted by Darren Power on 3:49 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Tuesday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Tuesday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Breaking Breeze in the 1340 at Huntingdon (all times GMT).
Derby-winning jockey Alan Munro is to make a surprise return to race riding next season.
The 37-year-old, most famous for his victory on Generous in the 1991 Derby, has not ridden competitively for four years but travels to America in the near future to ride track work in a bid to get fit.
Tuesday's racing comes from Huntingdon, Sedgefield and Southwell.
Champion jockey Tony McCoy has three rides at Huntingdon and should have good chance of success aboard Wild is the Wind in the 1410. "
posted by Darren Power on 9:43 AM

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Nicholls overdue the spoils of Power : The Independant
By Sue Montgomery
09 November 2004
Our Vic, one of last year's most exciting staying novice chasers and one of the leading prospects for the season among Martin Pipe's powerful team, will not, after all, be strutting his stuff at his trainer's Press inspection session this morning. Instead, the handsome six-year-old, who had been ante-post favourite for Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham, will be skulking in his box, having suffered a torn muscle in a hind leg.
The injury is not serious, but enough to put Our Vic on the easy list for a few days. Having been thwarted in his tilt at the first major handicap chase of the campaign, for which he was a well-backed 5-2 shot, he will now be aimed at the next, the Tripleprint Gold Cup back at Prestbury Park next month."Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 7:49 AM

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Monday, November 08, 2004
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Flint River in the 1505 at Wolverhampton (all times GMT).
Following an early morning inspection, racing at Carlisle has been given the green light and definitely goes ahead, and they also race on the all-weather at Southwell and Wolverhampton.
The ground at Carlisle is soft with heavy patches and will be very demanding indeed. "
posted by Darren Power on 12:47 PM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Frankie and fillies top Flat bill
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Frankie and fillies top Flat bill: "Frankie Dettori may have been the headline act of the 2004 Flat season but there were also several other major attractions.
Attraction being the apt word with the filly of that name winning both the English and Irish 1,000 Guineas and completing her Group One hat-trick in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. "
posted by Darren Power on 7:33 AM

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Telegraph | Sport | Dettori dedicates title to wife
Telegraph | Sport | Dettori dedicates title to wife: "For a while the last rites of the season depended on a Dettori family bus bringing him, wife Catherine and a dozen friends up the M1 to see him clinch his title at Doncaster. The traffic did its worst but the trek was made and, even if Frankie was beaten by main rival Kieren Fallon in the featured November Handicap, he ended the day a deeply happy man with his third British jockeys' title."
posted by Darren Power on 7:32 AM

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Saturday, November 06, 2004
Racing Review courtesey of Bet 365
Bet 365

Badger Ales Trophy Handicap Chase, Wincanton
********************************************
Sa Nov 6 – 15.10
The race features the return of last season’s Betfred Gold Cup runner-up Royal Auclair, who can use this a springboard to a successful season, and a possible tilt at the Grand National. Despite not scoring last winter the seven-year-old put a number of decent placed, amassing nearly £70,000 in prize money, showing he still retained the ability that he had first showed for Martin Pipe as a novice. After struggling on and off with his breathing, a summer operation to correct it seems to have done the trick. According to his trainer Paul Nicholls in a recent trainer file – "he is now working incredibly well and is twice the horse he was 12 months ago".

November Handicap, Doncaster
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Sa Nov 6 – 14.55
In this tricky handicap a tentative vote goes to Tempsford, who made virtually all over course and distance last time and is a good deal fresher than most of his rivals. Previously a non-stayer in the Cesarewitch, Tempsford has the scope to defy a 6lb rise for that win, and won’t mind the likely soft ground. Last years’ winner Turbo has been well supported into favouritism, but will need to be over the effects of a hard race in dreadful conditions at Newbury last time out, and besides this year’s race looks tougher. Best of the outsiders could be Another Choice, who finished strongly in a competitive race over an extended mile and a quarter, giving the impression that a return to this trip was needed. A 2lb rise for that run looks fair and leaves him nicely weighted, needing only a couple of rivals to defect so he make the final cut.
bet365 selected November Handicap prices … Turbo 5/1, Sendintank, Artistic Style, Tempsford 8/1, Carte Diamond, Mithe Hill 10/1, Another Chance 16/1, others on bet365 website. Each-way 1/4 odds 1.2.3.4.

CHANNEL 4 OFFER
***************
Channel 4 are showing seven live races on Saturday. Back a horse at 4/1 (or
more) in any of these races and if it wins, we’ll give you your winnings and a free bet to the same stake on the next Channel 4 race!
For example - Have £50 on an 11/2 winner in the 14.05 Wincanton. Have your £50 FREE BET on the 14.20 Doncaster, the next live Channel 4 race. If your FREE BET wins at 4/1 or over, have another £50 FREE BET on the 14.35 Down Royal.
Saturday’s Channel 4 races (subject to change):
Doncaster: 14.20; 14.55 (November Handicap); 15.25.
Wincanton: 14.05; 15.10 (Badger Beer); 15.40.
Down Royal: 14.35.

To take part click here

posted by Darren Power on 9:49 AM

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Free Racing Tips
Free Racing Tips are now online at www.on-line-tips.co.uk/saturday
along with racing systems & other reports

posted by Darren Power on 8:10 AM

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BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Macs Joy claims Down Royal win
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Macs Joy claims Down Royal win: "Macs Joy edged out another Cheltenham prospect Brave Inca in the big race on the opening day of the Northern Ireland Festival of Racing at Down Royal.
Jessica Harrington's 4-7 favourite defeated last season's Cheltenham Supreme Novices' Hurdle winner by a length in the Anglo Irish Bank Hurdle. "
posted by Darren Power on 8:10 AM

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Racing: Pagan Sky to halt Balding's Turbo-charged final fling
"By Richard Edmondson
Published : 06 November 2004"


Another Doncaster, another curtain comes down this afternoon as the leaning laurels are waiting to circle the necks of the respective turf champions.

It is an almost seamless transition, as the likes of Beef Or Salmon and Moscow Flyer enter from another wing to herald some serious stuff in the National Hunt sphere.

For today, though, we must hail Frankie Dettori, for regaining his appetite and jockeys' championship from Kieren Fallon. Hand in glove comes his great Godolphin confederate, Saeed bin Suroor, the leading trainer ahead of Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston, who takes away the substantial consolation of having saddled the most winners.

This afternoon, while the credits roll to clapperboard and gopher level, we must also salute an outgoing participant. Toby Balding will end 47 years as a trainer at close of play.

His Kimpton Down stables are represented today by Desailly at Sandown and at Doncaster by Historic Place in the last and by Turbo, who has been made favourite to retain the notable pot of the November Handicap. "Turbo's an enigma," Balding said this week. "He's an autumn horse, he comes good at this time of year and he's in screamingly good form. He has not got a good draw [20] on paper, but, as he has got to be dropped in and likes to come wide, it's not a disaster..............


The Independent Online Edition > Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 8:09 AM

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Friday, November 05, 2004
Balding aims to keep the fun rolling into retirement
"Racing: By Richard Edmondson
Published : 05 November 2004


Toby Balding seems to have been around for ever, but tomorrow the final grain of sand falls through his training timer. Turbo runs in the November Handicap, Desailly at Sandown and then it will be over.
Balding falls three seasons short of completing a half century as a trainer, and goes as one of the few to have completed National Hunt racing's holy trinity of Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham Gold Cup and Grand National. It will not be easy to get the lid down on his trove of great memories. 'I haven't regretted a single day I've trained,' he said. 'It's been a magic way of life.'"The Independent Online Edition > Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 7:47 AM

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Thursday, November 04, 2004
BBC SPORT | Best Mate blow for injured jockey
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Best Mate blow for injured jockey: "Jockey Jim Culloty is set to miss Best Mate's first race of the season after breaking a bone in his thumb in a fall.
The Irish jockey, who has ridden the horse to three wins in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, faces several weeks out.
Culloty, who had a plate inserted in his hand during an operation, hopes to return just before Christmas.
Trainer Henrietta Knight will need to find a jockey for her stable star should he run in the William Hill Chase at Exeter on 19 November. "
posted by Darren Power on 12:38 PM

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BBC SPORT | Thursday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Thursday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Sword Lady in the 1415 at Towcester (all times GMT).
Kieren Fallon should ensure a decent crowd at Nottingham, where he has five rides.
Athboy Nights, who goes in the 1325, looks an interesting proposition and comes from a stable that Fallon has an excellent strike rate for.
Steve Drowne rides the Polytrack at Wolverhampton particularly well and should have more success aboard Mobo Baco in the 1635"
posted by Darren Power on 9:39 AM

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Wednesday, November 03, 2004
BBC SPORT |Dettori incurs wrath of stewards
"Dettori incurs wrath of stewards
Frankie Dettori has been suspended for one month by racing stewards after pleading guilty to careless riding in Tuesday's Melbourne Cup at Flemington.
Dettori, who rode Godolphin's Mamool, permitted his mount to shift to the outside of Hugs Dancer approaching the 800m mark of the famous two-mile race.
The move prevented sixth-placed Distinction, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, from making a forward move.
Mamool finished seventh behind Makybe Diva, who won back-to-back Cups. "Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 2:33 PM

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BBC SPORT | Wednesday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Wednesday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Moorlands Return in the 1455 at Kempton (all times GMT).
Wednesday's racing comes from Musselburgh, Wolverhampton, Kempton and Newton Abbot.
Musselburgh stages its best race of the season with a listed contest at 1540.
Holy Orders travels over from Willie Mullins' stable in Ireland but he will find it hard work to beat Alcazar. "
posted by Darren Power on 10:54 AM

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Racing: Azertyuiop rated above Best Mate
"
By William Hurley at Exeter
03 November 2004
Tony McCoy will be forced to miss the valuable on Paddy Power Gold Cup day at Cheltenham on Saturday week after picking up a one-day ban for his use of the whip on Tresor De Mai here yesterday.
Tresor De Mai, a 12-1 shot, won by a short-head after a tough struggle with runner-up Fox In The Box in the three-mile handicap chase.
Earlier, in the Haldon Gold Cup, McCoy finished second on Seebald as Azertyuiop showed he will be a tough nut to crack in the major two-mile chases this season."Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 7:36 AM

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Tuesday, November 02, 2004
On Line Tips £500 profit
I've been monitoring the results of the On Line Tips email tipping service. It's run by my good friend Dave French, he sometimes lets me put up free tips on this news service.

Anyway I've been getting this service for free for a couple of months and it's doing great.

The deal was that I would get the free tips and in return I would mention the service here from time to time. But the results have been so good I want to tell you.

In October there were 30 tips 13 won at SP just to £25 level stakes it made £496 profit and the service only costs £20 per month.

You can sign up here http://www.on-line-tips.co.uk/saturday/emailtips.html

posted by Darren Power on 2:10 PM

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BBC SPORT | Tuesday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Tuesday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Azertyuiop in the 1450 at Exeter (all times GMT).
Tuesday's racing comes from Exeter, Catterick and Folkestone.
Makybe Diva rewrote the history books in the early hours of Tuesday morning when she became the first mare to win consecutive Melbourne Cups.
Melbourne Cup report
European challenger Vinnie Roe ran the race of his life to finish second, while Frankie Dettori was out of the money aboard Mamool. "
posted by Darren Power on 11:47 AM

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High flyers rev up for a season of speed
"
By John Cobb
02 November 2004
The next best thing to Best Mate, Best Mate's mate, Edredon Bleu, returns to racecourse duty at Exeter today at an age when gentle strolls around the paddock might seem more suitable exercise. Instead, the old warrior, who will become a teenager, and thus a veteran in racing terms, in less than two months' time, will try to match strides with the fastest steeplechaser in Britain, Azertyuiop.
Who could call time on Edredon Bleu's career now, after a season in which he went unbeaten and recorded his greatest success in the King George VI Chase at Kempton? Henrietta Knight would certainly be the last trainer to push him on into an imprudent last hurrah if the risk of injury or ignominy became too great."Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 10:21 AM

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BBC SPORT | Makybe repeats Cup success
Makybe Diva outgunned Ireland's Vinnie Roe on Tuesday to become the first mare to win the Melbourne Cup twice.

The Australian-trained seven-year-old started a heavily backed 13-5 favourite to repeat her 2003 win and she did not let her supporters down.

Makybe Diva took over at the furlong pole in soft conditions to win Australia's most famous race, carrying a first prize of more than £1.1m.

BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Makybe repeats Cup success
posted by Darren Power on 7:25 AM

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Monday, November 01, 2004
Melbourne Cup
It's Melbourne Cup this evening or early hours for us Brits.
Why not get a free £10 bet from Coral who have prices available for The Melly Cup

Click Here for Tote odds & Coral Prices

posted by Darren Power on 3:50 PM

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BBC SPORT | Monday's racing bulletin
BBC SPORT | Other Sport | Horse Racing | Monday's racing bulletin: "The Five Live selection is Acertrack in the 1540 at Plumpton (all times GMT).
Monday's racing comes from Redcar, Warwick and Plumpton.
The final meeting of the season at Redcar has no shortage of runners, with 98 horses contesting seven races, making the selection of winners difficult. "
posted by Darren Power on 11:28 AM

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BBC NEWS | UK | Punter watches £1m win disappear :-(
"A 'desperately unlucky' punter saw a jackpot of nearly £1m drop away to just £90 as his winning horse was disqualified after the race.
The unnamed gambler placed the £2 bet at a branch of Ladbrokes in Newcastle, on Saturday, it has emerged.
Had stewards not disqualified Babodana from a race at Newmarket in favour of Sleeping Indian, he would have picked up a cheque for £957,714.
'I feel so desperately sorry for the guy,' said the shop's manager.
He has not yet come forward to claim his £90 winnings."Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 11:27 AM

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Dettori and Fallon lead home the brave
"Racing: : Two wins from two runners for Britain prompts question why so few made the attempt
By Richard Edmondson in Dallas
01 November 2004
The Four Seasons Hotel at Los Colinas was the place to be in the aftermath of Breeders' Cup XXI on Saturday night. Jeremy Noseda, the Newmarket trainer, was there, with a glass of champagne. So too was Edward Richard William Stanley, the 19th Earl of Derby, or Teddy to his friends. They represented the two British horses that had competed at Lone Star Park. They represented winners."Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 9:01 AM

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NO JAPAN TRIP FOR OUIJA: Sporting Life - Racing
"Ouija Board is in 'A1' condition after her famous Breeders' Cup victory at Lone Star Park on Sasturday night and is now set for a well-deserved winter holiday.
The Ed Dunlop-trained filly will return home to Newmarket on Monday, flying via France.
But Dunlop, who left Texas along with Ouija Board's owner Lord Derby on Sunday, was able to give a positive bulletin on his charge's condition before his departure.
Confirming that the possibility of taking her to the Japan Cup had now definitely been ruled out, he said: 'She is fine this morning, absolutely A1."Full Story:
posted by Darren Power on 7:30 AM

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